Day 1 ​(Tuesday 6 September)

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13:15-13:50

Presentation 1: The implications of ageing for macroeconomic performance
Governments in the Asia/Pacific region have historically been very focused on economic growth, with remarkable success. Now, a common assumption is that population ageing is putting that success at risk and will damage economic growth in coming decades. Although the demographic trends present clear challenges, the impact of ageing on the macroeconomy has often been stated in purely negative terms. Reality is more complex, and many variables will affect future productivity, including technological advances, changes in the workforce (including female participation and immigration), retirement and savings practices, and the functional health of older persons. This session will highlight a handful of key variables that will affect future economic growth and offer a few clear messages for governments on how to prepare and adapt their countries for the coming demographic changes.

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13:50-14:25

Presentation 2: The implications of ageing for shared growth and equity

With Asia’s attention on macroeconomic growth, the distribution of benefits from that growth was not high on policy agendas. The assumption was that economic benefits would trickle down throughout the population. In many cases, however, economies grew rapidly but wealth become increasingly skewed and unequal. Now there is increased public interest in tackling inequity and poverty – sharing the fruits of growth. How will population ageing affect the equation? As the numbers of senior citizens rise and the labour force stagnates or shrinks, will citizens increasingly enter old age without adequate protection in such areas as income, health care, and long-term care? Will smaller families face increasing burdens in caring for older members? What should be the role of the State in supporting them? This session will highlight messages for governments on how to prepare and adapt their countries for the coming demographic changes to ensure that economic growth is shared equitably and social harmony maintained.

 

14:25-15:00

Presentation 3: The implications of ageing for fiscal sustainability

The populations of many countries in the region are ageing rapidly, and governments are increasingly concerned about how it will affect their fiscal situation. There are multiple sources of anxiety, including the ageing of the workforce and potential loss of tax revenue, along with the increased budget commitments to provide care for older persons (including health care, long-term care and pensions). How will population ageing affect the government’s budgetary obligations and fiscal sustainability in the future? This session will discuss variables that will affect the future fiscal picture in ageing societies. It will offer messages for governments on how to prepare and adapt the functions of state for the coming demographic changes, not only to avoid unsustainable fiscal imbalances but also to ensure that citizens are protected and the social contract between governments and citizens is maintained.

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17:00-18:00 (Side event)

China’s experience in responding to the economic implications of ageing
With the world’s largest population of older persons, China faces great challenges but also has unique national experience to share in responding to rapid demographic change, which has coincided with sustained economic growth over many years. The China National Committee on Ageing (CNCA) was established as a government body in 1982 following the First World Assembly on Ageing. CNCA produces policies for an ageing population, coordinates work on ageing by different ministries and monitors work on age-related activities. Mr Liu Zengrui, CNCA’s Director of Rights and Interests Protection, will share China’s experience in responding to the economic implications of China’s growing ageing population.
 

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Measuring quality of life of older people: lessons from the analysis of national datasets in Asia
The Global AgeWatch Index has identified four domains as key to the quality of life of older people: income security, health status, capability (measured by education and employment status), and enabling environment (measured by social connections, physical safety, civic freedom and access to transport).  Due to data gaps and measurement constraints, it has been possible to include just 96 of ‘193’ countries in the AgeWatch Index.  Additionally, international datasets are not always disaggregated either beyond age 60 (i.e. 60-64, 65-69, etc.), by sex, location, or level of education. These data constraints are also a concern in the context of the global commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the data challenges associated with measuring the implementation of the SDGs.

The purpose of this event is:

• to explore findings and questions arising from the analysis of national datasets in Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan and their implications for both policy and practice on age data collection, analysis, utilisation and dissemination. 

• to present draft recommendations for decision-makers and national statistical offices.
   

 

Publications market place
The participants in the conference represent a tremendous amount of innovative research, analysis and communications related to ageing and the theme of the conference. This informal time after the last plenary session provides an opportunity for participants to display and discuss their recent publications. All are welcome to wander around the publications display area in the foyer and talk to researchers and others about the documents presented. 

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Day 2 (Wednesday 7 September)

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Stream 1: Workforce

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9:00-10:30

W-1: Maintaining workforce size: augmenting a shrinking workforce  

The assumption that ageing will have a negative impact on economic performance has often been based on standard calculations of “working age” and age dependency: that is, most MICs will face a stark reduction in the proportion of the population in working age, drastically increasing dependency ratios. However, the effects are not nearly so clear cut. Labour force participation and the composition of the workforce are also determined by factors other than age, such as wider participation of women, migration and full use of the under-employed population. All these are factors to be considered in reconceptualising workforce. This session will examine options for maintaining the size of the workforce during a period of population ageing and recommend a few key priorities for government. (The next session complements by examining options for making better use of older persons in the workforce.)

 

11:00-12:30

W-2: Maintaining workforce size: making better use of older workers

Some people have expressed alarm at the prospects of a shrinking share of the population in “working age” in societies facing rapid ageing. One way to address this challenge is by augmenting the labour force in various ways, as discussed in the previous session (W-1). Another crucial response for ameliorating workforce reduction is expanding opportunities for work in later stages of life. This is frequently blocked or limited by policies like mandatory retirement at relatively young ages and age discrimination in loans or training. Solutions can include flexible retirement, removing disincentives to work in order to claim pension benefits and technology to make work less physically demanding. This session will discuss the options and limits of enabling people to work in old age, in the context of rising life expectancy.

 

13:30-15:00

W-3: Investing in workforce quality and productivity in an era of ageing

Contraction of the workforce resulting from population ageing will also demand increased productivity. Currently Asian countries have enormous variations in productivity. It is clear that future older people will be better educated and should live longer, ideally in better health. A life course approach, investing in health and education and embracing technological advances to reap longer-term returns, is a necessary strategy. Countries can get caught in a middle-income trap due to low productivity approaches which rely on labour intensive and low-value added industries, generally unsustainable in the context of rapidly ageing societies. To avoid this Asian countries must adapt through institution building and social spending which develops more educated populations and more productive economic options. This session will highlight some ways ageing societies can invest in the labour quality and economic productivity to compensate for the ageing of the workforce.

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Stream 2: Health

 

9:00-10:30

H-1: Healthcare in middle income ageing societies: Cost or investment?

One of the most widespread anxieties concerning demographic ageing is that of its impact on healthcare costs. It is essential to shift our view from health expenditure as a cost to that of an investment across the life course through improved systems. The generalised perception of older people as frail, ill and dependent is specious. The true picture of health in later life is varied and dynamic and approaches are needed which extend functionality so that older people live in better health for longer, and at a lower cost to individuals, households and governments. Policies must support the majority to practice healthy ageing while also ensuring support for those in poor health. This session will discuss why ageing societies need to invest in strengthening public health measures in primary healthcare towards healthy living and disease prevention for all ages.

 

11:00-12:30

H-2: The financial implications of different policy choices in national health systems reform    

One key concern is that population ageing will lead to a substantial rise in health related costs and to immense financial burdens related to the provision of and access to healthcare, for government and for families and individuals. The rise in prevalence of non-communicable diseases and the growing gap between life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE), particularly for the poor, represent substantial challenges for society. Although ageing may not be the main risk factor for all NCDs, it is strongly correlated, and under-diagnosis and mismanagement can lead to huge financial burdens for individuals, families and states if sound policies are not in place. Different health system design choices will lead to different outcomes. This session will examine some basic policy options in the reform of national health systems and the financial and equity implications of these decisions.

 

13:30-15:00

H-3: Can the State afford not to get involved in long-term care?

Despite the strong tradition of family care across Asia, demographic, economic and social trends are creating significant gaps in care for older people. Meeting the care needs of rapidly ageing populations is therefore an increasingly serious policy concern for governments in the region. There will not only be more people in need of care but also relatively fewer people of working age able to contribute practically or financially towards that care. Historically, care has been seen as the responsibility of families, but is that still a feasible perspective for governments? Despite resource constraints, governments have some options in how they address those gaps, and inaction may lead to even greater costs. This session will discuss why governments should consider policy options to minimise this burden on families and older people and maximise the contribution that people in later life can make to their families, communities and societies.

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Stream 3: Income

 

9:00-10:30

I-1: Changing patterns of income sources in old age     

Older people have diverse sources of income: paid work, assets acquired in working life, intergenerational transfers and family support, and social assistance. A large proportion of older people in Asia were unable to save during their working years when their countries were predominantly low-income, limiting the accumulation of individual assets. Public transfers are prominent in many countries to address income gaps in old age. The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) is an approach that allows us to better understand the determinants and patterns of income security in old age across countries. This session, drawing on the NTA and other evidence, will discuss past trends and a possible future for income security in old age, shaped by older people who will have fewer children, may have saved more, and may be able to rely on comprehensive pensions systems. This stream will also highlight a handful of key variables that will affect how balanced income can be maintained to smooth income needs in old age.

 

11:00-12:30

I-2: Income, family and changing values

Older people are often viewed as dependent on support from their children, but the picture is more complex and nuanced by country. Some countries have experienced “reverse intergenerational flows”, where financially, older people who are better-off can be the safety net for their younger family members. The nature of family, and societal values, are changing rapidly due to demographic, social and economic change. Fertility has declined sharply and family sizes are smaller, migration has dispersed family members, and longevity is changing the age profile of households. Policy change may also play a role in intergenerational dynamics. These societal changes are increasingly evident in very aged societies, and low and middle income countries undergoing rapid demographic change can learn from the policy successes and mistakes of aged societies. This session will highlight a handful of key variables that will affect how balanced household income can be can be supported by government policy in the face of changing demographics and societal values.

 

13:30-15:00

I-3: What type of sustainable pensions and savings mix does middle income Asia need?

The role of the state in providing comprehensive pensions schemes that are adequate and sustainable is essential to income security in later life. All countries in Asia have contributory pension schemes, but on their own, these schemes are insufficient to meet the income security needs of this generation of older people. Not only are many affected by low coverage but their unsustainability has become one of the most worrisome fiscal challenges that governments are currently facing. At least in the short term, social pensions aimed at wider, if not universal coverage, may be needed to ensure the income security of older people. But financing social pensions is a crucial issue to consider. Schemes should allow people to move from informal to formal employment without creating any disincentives for contributory scheme participation. Policy makers can find fiscal space by looking at ways to reorganise and recalibrate existing schemes. This session will discuss the menu of pension options and discuss critical issues of sustainability and coverage in addressing income security in old age, with a focus on middle income countries.

 

 

Stream 4: Markets

 

11:00-12:30

M-1: How can population ageing boost consumption and markets?

Population ageing is often perceived as a drag on the economy, national consumption and corporate profits. But many private sector and non-profit players have discovered market opportunities in ageing societies and are guided by market orientation, for example, through silver industries and capitalising on expanding demand in health, care and retirement service sectors. However, a failure of imagination may prevent traditional service providers associated with ageing, as well as many businesses, from seeing products and services from the standpoint of consumers – older persons and their families. How Asian countries anticipate and respond to demographic ageing will help determine the future of national economic development.  This session will discuss the commercial challenges and opportunities associated with population ageing and how all actors might benefit from a proactive approach towards a silver economy.

 

13:30-15:00

M2: The role of private sector partnerships with CSOs and government in ageing societies

In rapidly ageing societies, the private sector increasingly sees commercial opportunities serving the older population, while governments tend to focus on the burdens associated with ageing. They may be able to support each other: there are common interests between public, private and civil society sectors in addressing the needs of older people as citizens and consumers. Yet different organisational cultures and objectives often create mistrust and miscommunication, and may stand in the way of these relationships. This session will explore the opportunities and risks of partnerships between the private sector, governments and CSOs and suggest some ways to ensure they result in mutual benefit.

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Special session: 

 

9:00-10:30

The role of parliamentarians in creating active ageing societies

This session is organised with the Asian Forum of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (AFPPD). To address the challenges of rapid population ageing in Asia, parliamentarians need to advocate for changes in attitudes, policies and practices to ensure that older persons are not viewed simply as welfare beneficiaries but as active participants in the development process whose rights must be respected. As UN Member States embark on the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development, parliamentarians must ensure that older persons, especially the most vulnerable elderly groups, are not left behind in their respective countries. How can parliamentarians play a critical role to enable active ageing society where healthy, productive, dignified life for older persons can be realised?  What lessons and good practices can we learn from the experiences of selected Asian aged/ageing societies in terms of policymaking, legislations and budget allocations in addressing the emerging issues of older persons, especially most vulnerable elderly populations? Why is political will imperative in implementing age-friendly policy and legislation?

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